MY FORECAST NEW YEAR 2015

Pelaburan saham - Nazri Khan

Alhamdulillah. Looking forward to my first political seminar along with Malaysian respectable politicians on 2015 Economic & Stock Market Outlook.

All friends invited to attend. 27th January, Sunway Resort Hotel.

My humble FORECAST in 2015 :

2015 will see USA Federal Reserve unwind its huge USD3 trillion financial stimulus and start to hike interest rates, first time in eight years.

2015 will see Bank Of Japan and European Central Bank to start pumping in USD1 trillion yen and Euro 1 trillion to boost their flagging economies.

2015 will see Malaysia chairing ASEAN and the launch of Asean Economic Community and ASEAN stock exchange by October 2015.

2015 will see the start of mega bank merger in Malaysia. Expect the biggest Malaysian Bank to be born with more than RM100 billion market cap next year.

2015 will see Malaysia finally implement Good Service Tax at 6% (lowest in ASEAN) after the long planning since 1992, Mahathir Prime Minister and Anwar Ibrahim, Finance Minister era. Malaysia are the third last ASEAN countries to implement GST.

2015 will see more than 10 mega IPO in Bursa Malaysia which includes 1MDB, Malakoff, Weststar, Iskandar Waterfront, Al Medini, Khazanah Theme Park, Ekuinas Ilmu, Sunway Construction, Sime Auto and Ecoworld International.

2014 will be officially Bursa Malaysia fourth WORST year in history, after 2008, 1997 and 1994. Year to date, Bursa has dipped 226 points or 11.8% ever since it
touched the highest record on the 8th July 2014.

2014 will be the first Bursa losing year after five straight profitable years since 2008. Not bad, given that Bursa has gained a whopping 1095 points or 135% since 28th October 2008 bottom.

2014 Bursa worst sectors are plantation and oil gas while the best Bursa sectors are technology and construction. All four sectors should be a good buy next year especially technology stocks if USA solid economy continue.

2015 should see Bursa renew momentum and continue the uptrend driven by the return of foreign inflows. As at today, foreign investors hold 45% of Malaysian Bonds and 23% of Malaysian equities, among the lowest in history.

2015 hottest economic issues will be falling ringgit, falling oil, rising inflation, rising interest rates, rising household debt, illicit money outflow and New Economic Model of Malaysian 11th Economic Plan.

2015 hottest political issues will be 1MDB Berhad, Anwar Sodomy Verdict, Seditious Act, Hudud Row, Pakatan Solidarity, Felda Group, Malaysia Airlines Berhad and UMNO New Political Model. Expect to see the rise of Malaysian political temperature and more confrontation Malay liberals vs Malay extremes.

2015 will see oil even cheaper than water. Within five months, oil price has crashed from USD110 to USD55 per barrel. It now costs RM1 to buy a litre of oil, compare
to water which is RM2 a litre. Ironically, RON 95 and Milo Tarik have not fallen as much.

2015 will see more currencies volatility. Forex traders are set to return. Top Five worst currencies in 2014 are Russian Rouble, Chilean Peso, Argentina Peso, Colombian Peso and Ukraine Hryvnia which have tumbled more than 20%. Ringgit which is already down 12% is yet to join the fray. Russia has shockingly raised its key interest rate to 17% from 10% after the collapse of the rouble currency.

2015 will see the return of Avian Influenze H5. Japanese officials slaughtered 4,000 chickens after confirming the H5 strain of bird flu at a poultry farm in the
southwest of the country. More widespread H5 will push Malaysian healthcare and glove stocks higher.

2015 will see the return of El Nino. Australian Weather Bureau confirmed 70% probabilities of El Nino emerging by February 2015 in the Pacific Ocean. This should be supportive of global aggro commodities including Malaysian Palm Oil.

2015 biggest DANGER to Global Stock Market will be GREECE. Signs suggest Greece may leave European Union if the left radicals, Syriza Party win the Greece general election this month. If this materialize, expect Greece exit to tear off Euro.

My overall take : 2015 will be the Best Stock Picking year for all investors and traders, despite higher Malaysian political temperature and rising interest rate, given the solid USA economy, cheaper Bursa stocks, super attractive risk-reward and huge selling seen over the last six month.

See me on 27th January 2015. Happy New Year.

~ Nazri Khan, Affin Hwang Investment Bank.

P/S: Boleh search artikel ni lagi ni untuk rujukan masa datang. Klik dekat bahagian search bahagian kanan atas blog ni. Penting juga sebagai rujukan. Sebagai contoh kalau berlaku penularan wabak selsema burung, ada kesan kepada sektor penjagaan kesihatan dan pasaran sarung tangan getah Malaysia. Kalau kaji sejarah tahun lepas, penularan wabak Ebola meningkatkan harga saham sektor kesihatan dan pasaran getah Malaysia seperti IHH, GREENYB, TOPGLOVE dan sebagainya.

Moga bermanfaat. Tq